The climax of the dramatic events that took place in recent weeks in Afghanistan has deeply shaken public opinion and created strong concerns within the international community.
The news and images coming from the Afghan territory and, in particular, from Kabul, the capital quickly reconquered by the Taliban, deeply saddened me, with a deja-vu of scenarios unfortunately experienced already in the past, of violence, fear and mass exodus.
The future of millions of Afghans is now uncertain, but especially for women, who in all likelihood will watch any hope for the emancipation won with so much sacrifice and determination in the last 20 years fade away.
Nothing foreshadowed such an epilogue, specifically, that just three months from the withdrawal of Western forces, in particular, as the leader, the USA, the Taliban would regain the land wrested from their control, thereby nullifying the effects of the military and humanitarian efforts in the area in a flash.
This operation is causing a change in the global geopolitical order, which could destabilize the Middle East and cause important economic-political and humanitarian repercussions in Europe and the USA also.
At this point, one wonders for what reason Biden decided to authorize the withdrawal of American troops from Afghan territory, and why right now, triggering the escalation of events which sadly we all know. Several hypotheses are possible.
Is this a sign of weakness or a US abdication from its international leadership as some are claiming? Probably not at all.
From the White House, in a speech to the nation, Biden declared that he did not want to repeat the mistakes of the past, formally attributing the reasons for his operation to a very onerous military commitment for American taxpayers, both in economic and financial terms as well as human lives lost in a civil war that was not its own, which seemed to never end.
However, it is reasonable to think that the US move is part of a broader strategy, which is worth questioning.
I have already stressed several times how the historic international leadership of the USA today is threatened by newly emerging powers, above all China, which, unlike the Americans, “at least formally” seems not to privilege military campaigns, but to favor strategic diplomacy to make the most of the economic return. One method of action that China will certainly also use with Afghanistan serves the countless interests linked to the New Silk Road, which could bring great benefits, from opening new trade borders with the countries of Central Asia to improving relations with Russia and Iran.
Additionally, China would get access to new mineral resources, such as gold, precious stones, copper, uranium, lithium etc. (with an estimated value of potentially 3 trillion dollars) essential for its own economy, and also for the Taliban, which would see huge gains stemming from mining and related commercial activities.
What is certain is that the American military occupation had represented, also for Russia, a guarantee of stability in that region of the Middle East adjacent to other small states considered potentially unstable, which line the southern border of the former Soviet empire, still considered by the Russians within its own sphere of influence.
China and Russia, at this juncture, potentially have a lot to gain but they must get it while confronting a highly unstable counterpart, whose Islamic fundamentalism worries both superpowers.
The exit from the Middle Eastern team of the USA and NATO, in this articulated geopolitical rearrangement, leaves “an open door”, behind which, however, there might be many pitfalls.

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