Reflections for the new year, on the economy, Europe and uncertainty
Dear Friends,
Deep down in our hearts we all wish economics were a precise science, and despite all our experience and studies, we still get upset when our attempts to predict the consequences of a given event go wrong.
It would be very reassuring if this were not the case, but, just as disillusionment is imprisoned between desires and certainties, economics is imprisoned in a cocktail of politics, geopolitics and, today, technology.
2025 was a year of great “abundance”: an abundance of incongruities, of volatility, of political and geopolitical shocks with a direct impact on markets. It was the year of America First, opening with a major turning point on the stock exchange, triggered by tariffs, trade tensions and conflicts that are still ongoing. Events and declarations from overseas had a major effect on the economy during the year, and continue to be a strong influence today.
We find ourselves in a situation of unprecedented levels of global uncertainty, as demonstrated by the World Uncertainty Index.
And yet, paradoxically, financial markets have reached new peaks, as may be seen by the trend in S&P 500 and MSCI World, indexes which have grown by more than 17% and 20%, respectively, in the past 12 months alone.
On the whole, the economy appears to resist. And yet a number of important signs of weakness are emerging which must be taken into account. These include a high level of concentration of US stock markets, with the “Magnificent 7” alone accounting for a third of the S&P 500, and global debt, which is estimated to exceed global GDP in the years to come, partly due to increased defense spending, the aging population and major investment in the energy transition.
To these factors we must add the growing risk linked with financial intermediaries other than banks, operating outside of the conventional perimeter of regulation, increasing financial leverage and systemic interconnection.
These are factors that could favor correction of the economic scenario. If this change comes about, much will depend on the signals coming from the US government, which has so far stood out for its particularly bold tone and actions, especially in international politics.
Europe and the United States are still profoundly interconnected economies; it would be unrealistic to fantasize about complete independence of the European economy from the American one. But it is plausible that the recent dynamics may offer encouragement for Europe to develop a greater capacity to respond, to find a virtuous balance between regulation, competitiveness and entrepreneurial, financial and technological dynamism. The European economy could thus be made less vulnerable to swings from abroad.
Now that 2025 is behind us, it is reasonable to expect the new year to bring more significant events like those we have been seeing recently. But we can only partially foresee their consequences. We must remember that, even when it is based on complex mathematical models, economics is essentially a social science, studying the behavior of individuals and optimal use of the available resources. Europe has plenty of resources to count on, both tangible and intangible; these include the ability to build systems (economic, financial, and of markets) which may be slower, but are certainly more stable over the years. And, above all, Europe has a talent of inestimable value for the production of know-how and new knowledge.
I look forward to seeing you all again soon, and I wish you all the best in 2026.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Photo credit: Resource Database (link: https://unsplash.com/it/@resourcedatabase )
The invisible infrastructure of tomorrow’s leaders
Physical, digital, energy and logistics networks on one hand; the “globalization of superficiality” on the other.
Infrastructures unite territories and nations: they are tools bringing wealth, cooperation, development and prosperity. But capital, networks and investment now invite new reflection in this regard.
And so we have nations that are still far from achieving political and economic stability alongside others, particularly in the West where prosperity has been achieved, that are dealing with new forms of poverty: emotional, spiritual and social impoverishment.
We live at a time in which physical macro-infrastructures are growing rapidly while inner micro‑infrastructures remain fragile. This tension is the context of the “globalization of superficiality”: an increasingly common social phenomenon that produces immediate adhesion and bulimic consumption of content while reducing the aptitude for critical reflection and diminishing spirituality to an individual horizon that is all about personal sentiments rather than shared values.
Reason thus risks separation from the spiritual essence, with the result of producing individuals who are more fragile, afraid of getting to the heart of the matter: a condition that is particularly apparent among youth.
And so I ask myself: what will be the impact of this superficiality on the leaders of tomorrow? The construction of healthy business relationships is based on the desire to build lasting well-being together, rather than just finalize an agreement or make a profitable investment. To be a good banker, businessperson or professional, one must take into account the message of the Good Samaritan, to which I dedicated some reflection not long ago. It is this kind of compassion that goes beyond indifference and creates a future, when it becomes a choice of method and responsibility.
This is an issue close to my heart, on which I have been working in recent years educating young business leaders with the University of Fordham. Boys and girls who thoroughly understand economics and finance, but also know how to do their life’s work with responsibility, a humanistic vision and a long-term perspective.
One of the great conquests of our age is widespread access to knowledge via the web: an immense treasure. But even the greatest of treasures requires discernment. As Saint Ignatius of Loyola, founder of the Jesuit order, taught, the spirit is the most valuable infrastructure of all; it must also be made stable and secure.
This is why I invite young people, and particularly economists, and our future leaders, to go deeper than the surface. I suggest they read Thomas P. Rausch, theologian at Loyola Marymount University, author of the article “The Spiritual Exercises in a Secular Age”, offering plenty of inspiration for building a healthy spirituality. When it comes to philosophy, on the other hand, I recommend Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor, professor emeritus at McGill University, author of “A Secular Age”, a work exploring the relationship between faith and contemporary society.
Two different but complementary points of view, helping to integrate the humanistic dimension into the sciences of economics and finance. Because the question cannot always be reduced to deciding whether you believe or not.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Roads, networks and data are redrawing global balances and alliances
The past few months have seen a radical shift in trade networks, completely redrawn by US tariffs; Europe has once again given priority to building defense, while the conflict between Israel and Iran has demonstrated how wars are going beyond the traditional territorial and geographical reasoning.
The proliferation of conflicts, whether armed or trade wars, is a sign of a changing scenario in which new balances are emerging and relationships of power are increasingly measured on the basis of different parameters, going beyond mere military capability. The developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran, two nations that do not share a border, has for example demonstrated that wars are now fought over information flows, data security and network stability.
Consider that a little more than a century ago, the fathers of classic geopolitics already attributed strategic value to physical infrastructure – roads and railways – capable of uniting territories, consolidating economic power and political influence at the expense of other powers. This intuition has now gained greater significance: the power of a nation is measured in terms of its physical, digital, energy and information connections, and no longer solely in terms of arms.
Connection infrastructure thus plays a strategic role for its ability to integrate and protect, in the broadest sense of the term. Controlling it means wielding a decisive influence. Whether it’s high-speed railways, airports, 5G networks, satellite systems, or oil pipelines, the ability to manage these systems represents a competitive edge in a nation’s strategic projection on the international scene.
Events unfortunately demonstrate how difficult it is to have a conflict-free world. However, the global balance is being shaken up once again, this time in favor of the nations that will be able to guarantee the security and efficiency of their physical, digital, energy and logistical connections. The more there are of these nations, the more international stability we will have, because, unlike war, infrastructure builds strategic links, tools for cooperation and economic development: all factors supporting competitiveness and well-being.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Feeling secure: balancing information, wellness and collaboration
"I am a businessman, who belongs to a generation that went to school and studied hard to land jobs that would guarantee money, security, and status. […] But I am here to tell you that our generation’s definition of success was wrong." I spoke these words in 2012, at the graduation ceremony of my son, Francesco. Thinking back on those words 13 years later, they are by no means irrelevant today.
New generations are clearly questioning the role of money and status in the search for happiness, connecting success more with wellness and personal balance. But at the same time, we all feel a greater need for security, for protection: in our health, our affective ties, and our personal and career decisions.
In a world where the pace of change obliges us to make decisions faster than ever, especially in business, security also requires decisions to be made on the basis of concrete facts and data. Data that is growing exponentially in volume, complexity and value.
The information we obtain from this data is just as important an asset as financial capital. According to the World Economic Forum, data have become “the lifeblood of the digital economy”, and the ability to analyze and protect data is the new frontier of competitiveness for enterprises.
This means that digital infrastructure must be solid, powerful, and secure, considering that in the year 2024 alone, cyberattacks resulted in an estimated loss of 10 billion euro world-wide: a 100% increase over 2023 (Il Sole 24 Ore, February 2025). With the NIS 2 Directive, the European Union imposed a paradigm shift in the governance of cyber risk, extending security obligations to a growing number of strategic parties. Cyber security is a growing market: according to Statista, the sector will be worth more than 250 billion dollars by 2028, with an annual growth rate of over 12%.
This context is broadening the scope of synergies between enterprises and investors, in terms of strategic vision, risk awareness, governance tools and access to technologies and competences. The goal is to help enterprises protect their digital infrastructure and become truly data-driven, sharing best practices, data management models, digital platforms and educational opportunities.
In 2012 I concluded my speech by inviting students to commit themselves to promoting responsible change and becoming “compassionate thinkers”. Now, I would add that security also means knowing you are not alone in addressing this complicated scenario, which is increasingly digital but, in the end, still profoundly human.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Certainties that are changing, strategies to be reconsidered. Will energy be less green?
“Nothing’s sure about tomorrow,” wrote Lorenzo de’ Medici more than five centuries ago, in an attempt to stop time and harness the energy of youth. Energy that seems more valuable than ever today. Not necessarily – or not only – due to the demographic shift, but because of the demands of enterprises, the economy and our own lives.
In a world with an ever-growing appetite for energy, whether from natural gas, oil or renewable sources, this is an issue of strategic importance. Until yesterday it seemed perfectly clear in which direction we were moving: toward renewable energy and electric mobility. But this is no longer the case, and the future of energy is up for discussion once again.
There seemed to be little doubt that electric mobility would be the key to the automotive industry of the future, but the current slowdown in the market demonstrates that the issue is more complicated than that. Despite major investment and political support, demand for electric vehicles is slowing down, braked by still high costs and delays in the development of charging infrastructure. The trend is confirmed by Deloitte’s recent Global Automotive Consumer Study, underlining consumers’ continued preference for combustion engines.
To this we may add growing demand for the minerals used to produce batteries, resulting in procurement issues which could become critical in the years to come. The major manufacturers are reviewing their strategies, a sign that the energy transition is not such a straight road, and the future of mobility could well swerve and take a different direction.
And so “nothing’s sure about tomorrow.” With the return of Trump, oil and gas are back on the scene: an effect that adds to the difficulties already being experienced in funding for green energy, with about 30 billion dollars claimed in the year 2024.
The phenomenon may be a transitory one, but it could have repercussions for Europe, where the green transition has come to a fork in the road: should we continue resolutely along the road to sustainability, or reconsider our choices in order to stay competitive? With the Green Deal, the European Union demonstrates that it has no doubts which way to go, and the markets agree.
But the ongoing evolution of economic, geopolitical and technological factors demands constant revision and adaptation with the goal of balancing innovation, energy security and competitiveness.
Reality has once again turned out to be more changeable than we thought. Overly rigid plans of action could therefore represent a brake and a risk for businesses. Being prepared for such a scenario requires a strong focus on rational assessment, a spirit of adaptation, and an enterprising leadership capable of combining flexibility with different perspectives and pragmatic solutions. Only in this way, “whatever is to be, must be”!
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Commitment, tradition and the future: Four years of renewal at Fordham London
The end of the year is the perfect time to take stock, to stop and reflect. And if I had to sum up the past 4 years in a single word, it would have to be “renewal”. An important word in the Fordham community, bearer of a mindset that has always been oriented toward improvement and values such as freedom, justice and truth, in line with the tradition of Saint Ignatius.
Aware of this precious gift, I wish, in these brief reflections, to offer my testimony of my four years as Chair of the Fordham London Center Advisory Board, a position I have had the honor of holding until 2024.
It has been an extraordinary experience, inspired by the positive energy in the air at Fordham. Being able to contribute to the growth of a new generation of business leaders, sharing with them my experiences as an international banker and manager, has been a great privilege for me, and a boundless source of inspiration.
I’ve always been convinced that the process of studying is one of the most noble and transformative things a human being can do, and a door to change and progress. Contributing to this process means encouraging young people to be receptive to innovation, to embrace dialogue, to grow as individuals, and to promote a better society.
Looking back over these past four years of work together, what I see is a process of renewal and transformation, which began in 2020. It was supposed to be the year in which we celebrated the Centennial of the Gabelli School of Business, but it turned out to be the year of the pandemic. It was like an obstacle race: we had to adapt, quickly coming up with new ways of keeping our community alive at a time of great risk to both our health and our interpersonal relationships.
This evolution continued in 2021 and 2022 on the occasion of the celebrations of the Ignatian year, marking the 400th anniversary of the canonization of Saint Ignatius of Loyola, founder of the Jesuits. This offered a very important opportunity to restate the importance of universal human values, such as the ability to discern good from evil: an essential guide in our everyday choices.
Our commitment was expressed in the constant growth of the London Center, a “bridge” between the United States and Europe, achieving the University’s goal of offering its students an international education in line with the spirit of the Jesuit values. The results speak for themselves: in the 23/24 academic year, Fordham London registered record-breaking attendance figures, with more than 560 students registering for its international study programs.
I feel very proud of these milestones, the result of the praiseworthy dedication of all our management, to whom I express my deepest gratitude. Heartfelt thanks to Tania Tetlow, President of Fordham University, Lerzan Aksoy, Dean of the Gabelli School of Business and, before her, Donna Rapaccioli, for their outstanding leadership. Sincere thanks are also due to the Advisory Board for its constant commitment and contribution, and to the faculty, who have worked with dedication to achieve the established goals.
Lastly, my greetings and special wishes to my friend Greg Minson, the new Chair of Fordham London Center, to whom I have handed a difficult task which will however have plenty of satisfaction to offer. I’m confident that together, we will continue to work toward achieving important new milestones.
Fordham is not just a prestigious university; it’s a strong, lively community, where tradition is constantly renewed in response to the challenges of the times. Ad Maiora, Greg!
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Member of Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Do the younger generations redefine success?
For the youths of today, the concept of success has a very different meaning compared to that of previous generations. While for baby boomers it is linked to economic success, for the younger generations it is instead a concept increasingly tied to a person’s wellbeing and equilibrium. It is a radical change, one which must be taken into account.
Nowadays, a leader must know how to communicate with more generations, with young people who are more sensitive to the big social and environmental issues of today, and their not-so-young counterparts, who bring a wealth of experience, know-how and skill to managing particularly complex situations. Finding a balance between the different demands and sensitivities becomes a determining factor, not only for fostering a fruitful collaboration in achieving short- and medium-term business goals, but also for planning a gradual and smooth leadership transition.
Taking Italy as an example, the average age of CEOs in the financial sector is 60 years old, five years higher than the European average. This discrepancy has tangible consequences on the national, and subsequently, international, economy. According to the Bain & Company report with Key2people, this discrepancy entails a cost which, for Italy, is around 1/2% of the GDP.
Youthful leadership, as well as bringing fresh ideas and innovation, has a quantifiable value between 20 and 40 billion euros. This estimate clearly shows that investing in the younger generations and providing them with the necessary opportunities and resources to reach their full potential has a tangible impact. More experienced leadership can contaminate young people, since their time as students they are taught by example; they are shown concrete evidence of what it means to succeed in business, but also fundamental values for ethical and responsible leadership are transferred.
However, despite the economic and social importance of youthful and dynamic leadership, an interesting thought arises: what if young people are giving up on becoming leaders? This scenario raises a series of questions on young people’s aspirations and prospects in the world of work. Understanding why it might be preferable to be a follower instead of a leader in a less “success-centric” culture might offer new insights and contribute towards redefining the traditional concepts of leadership and success. In my opinion, and from my constant contact with young people, it is a symptom of a deep cultural change that we are experiencing.
Youths are surrounded by an environment characterized by the speed of change and the complexity of global challenges. Their expectations and priorities differ significantly from those of previous generations. They seek out debate, comparison and have a much more integrated and multidimensional view of work and life. This new perspective requires a more flexible and inclusive approach from organizations and more senior leaders. The next generation must be encouraged to learn, question and test themselves as soon as possible, so that they may pick up the leadership baton with confidence and awareness.
Investing in the younger generations within finance is not only a matter of continuity and sustainability, but also of fostering a more inclusive culture in this sector that is geared toward the future. The transition toward new approaches can and should be fast, as fast as the trends that go hand in hand with society today: the aging population and rapid technological evolution, for example. Trends that require agile and innovative leadership, able to adapt to changes and welcome new opportunities that arise.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Chairman Riviera Airport
Leading meetings effectively: the secrets of authentic leadership
When you have gained significant experience in a given professional field, it is common to take many skills for granted, forgetting the long journey you took to learn them. That is, until you have the opportunity to engage with the perspectives of young college students whose questions prompt you to reexamine certain aspects of your work in depth.
How do you best manage meetings in which different figures with different ideas interact? I get asked more and more by young people. The answer is not simple, but it is condensed into one word: authenticity. Being an authentic leader nowadays is a real skill.
Contrary to popular belief, leadership is not limited to influence over others or mere technical expertise. On the contrary, it is the ability to inspire others through shared principles. When conducting a moment of discussion, manifesting this type of adherence to project values generates a synergistic effect of participation, which transforms teamwork into a powerful driving force, leading to extraordinary results that go beyond the mere sum of the parts.
However, teamwork does not imply homogenization, but rather enhances the differences and peculiarities of each individual. Authentic leaders are those who foster an environment in which every voice is heard and valued, thus contributing to a culture of constructive discussion.
There are numerous concrete examples of "accessible" leadership, in which the leader is not a distant, authoritarian figure, but rather a close reference, capable of creating open and welcoming discussion, sharing their own point of view and listening to that of others as well. Based on my own experience and vision, these are the characteristics of a leader: one who does not impose their own idea but instead advocates for a collaborative and inclusive approach.
It is an art that goes beyond mere command or control. It is the ability to conduct discussion by inspiring trust, transparency and integrity, creating an environment in which each person feels valued and motivated to give their all.
Responding to you young students, I close with a message that I hope you will take with you: “lead by example”. The value of a leader is measured not only by financial results, but also by how these are achieved, between authenticity and consistency.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Chairman Riviera Airport
Flying towards a sustainable future: the transformation of air transport
A Virgin Atlantic Boeing 787 powered exclusively by environmentally friendly fuel completed a long-haul commercial flight for the first time in history. On 28 November 2023, the flight departed from London and arrived in New York using sustainable fuel (SAF - Sustainable Aviation Fuel), consisting mainly of waste food oil and animal fat.
This news may not be comparable to the first flight of the Wright brothers' flyer, but it is still a significant breakthrough in aviation and its transition towards sustainability. The environmental impact of the aviation sector is a much-debated topic, so it is natural to wonder how much pollution the aviation sector really causes. In reality, only one third of the sector's total emissions can be attributed to fuel, an area that, moreover, has improved tremendously in recent years thanks to cutting-edge engines and solutions that have considerably reduced consumption. For example, in thirty years, i.e. from 1990 to 2020, the adoption of increasingly efficient engines was estimated to have reduced fuel emissions by 43%, according to a study by the German Air Transport Association (BDL)[1]. At the same time, however, demand for air transport has grown tremendously and the number of flights has practically tripled, with the prospect of further growth in the coming years.
Keep in mind that nowadays we are talking more and more about sustainability going well beyond "just" CO2 consumption, and including all the actual substances released into the air. For this reason, achieving the target of reducing CO2 emissions by 2050 will inevitably have to include action on airport facilities, which are responsible for the remaining two-thirds of the sector's emissions.
Therefore, in order to comply with the new emission standards, airports will have to invest more and more into modernization, clean energy (especially photovoltaic panels), internal electric mobility solutions and focus on choices that take advantage of the circular economy. With this in mind, in the pursuit of a sustainable future, I see smaller airports having an advantage over large hubs.
The "smaller" airports, in fact, can adapt with considerably reduced costs and time compared to the large hubs, which require much more demanding structural work. This is an important advantage, also in light of the non-inclusion of air mobility in the PNRR, a choice that means that there is a lack of financial support for the efficiency and renovation interventions of Italian airport structures, regardless of their size.
The PNRR is probably a missed opportunity, but the urgency of the adjustments does not change. Even the recent COP28, which took place in Dubai between November and December 2023, focused on these issues, reaching an agreement on the decarbonization of air transport. The question of how to finance the measures remains open. A lack of public capital inevitably means that only private capital can be counted on, which makes the process somewhat more complicated.
In fact, the leverage to attract potential investors is almost exclusively that of the direct economic return of their investment, excluding parameters of public utility or the implementation of regional and national development policies, which are instead considered in public investments, just like direct returns. However, where the potential for growth is appealing, private investors could be a very positive solution. We have small and medium-sized hubs that had growth rates of more than 100% in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels.
These could make an important contribution to the growth and sustainable development of regions that are still on the fringes of major transport routes today. Regions that nevertheless have significant tourism potential and, above all, are home to a good portion of the small and medium-sized enterprises present along our peninsula which, let’s not forget, represent more than 99% of Italian companies and account for 77% of national added value. [https://www.istat.it/storage/rapporti-tematici/imprese2021/Rapportoimprese2021.pdf]
[1] source: https://www.bdl.aero/de/publikation/klimaschutzreport/
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board
Chairman Riviera Airport
The record growth of Italy's local airports: the rediscovery of a strategic asset for the country?
The Italian airport system does not just consist of Malpensa and Fiumicino. In addition to the big hubs, there are many small airports that, despite their size, represent a valuable resource for Italy with potential yet to be expressed.
Let's look at some figures. Passengers at virtually all medium and small airports (i.e., under 15 million annual passengers) grew significantly in 2022. A really interesting trend, according to Assaeroporti's analysis, which sees precisely the smaller airports growing most robustly.
Consider that Linate and Bari, classified as airports between 5 and 15 million annual passengers, have seen growth of more than 11%; while airports under 5 million annual passengers have seen growth of up to 13%. But it is the "micro" airports that are the real surprise, with even triple-digit growth rates: Bolzano, Foggia and Trapani exceeded 100% growth over pre-pandemic figures.
The reasons? They are ports of call that are located in mountainous or seaside areas, which are particularly attractive from a tourism point of view. A strength that makes them an additional ally in promoting the development of areas of the country still underserved by ground transportation today. Local airports can, in fact, be the engine of change involving smaller entities with significant room for growth. This observation can open up interesting avenues for considering direct investments in improving this type of infrastructure.
However, the opportunity is not only reflected in terms of potential, it is also a priority in terms of local and national development. In this sense, as with any other type of investment, time is a variable that needs to be carefully evaluated, because major infrastructure interventions require non-negligible technical time. Consider, for example, the lead time for a project such as Masterplan 2035 (the Malpensa expansion plan) and the enormous impact, not only economically but also socially, that comes with a target of more than 10 years away, 2035 to be exact.
On the other hand, the 62 "micro" airports scattered across the Italian territory have the great advantage of already being operational and, therefore, would require only limited technical adjustments of the existing one, which is easily achievable. This would bring development opportunities, and therefore wealth, to local communities, without excessive impacts on the territory. I am referring to interventions such as the adaptation of runways, the integration of the most advanced technological tools, and the enlargement of hangars or reception areas. This is certainly a less costly choice, in terms of money and time, which, indeed, could encourage the emergence of airlines dedicated to local - more capillary - connections to destinations not covered by traditional commercial airlines.
What may come as a surprise, and perhaps not widely known, is that travel by local aviation is not necessarily a service geared only to high-end customers, but can also be an affordable alternative for “consumer” customers who need to travel to areas that are currently underserved by public ground transportation, but are attractive for their tourist, artistic, and cultural offerings or, again, for business opportunities.
In conclusion, making the transportation network we already have more efficient is a low cost, low time, low effort solution. And also low risk, if well designed.