“Nothing’s sure about tomorrow,” wrote Lorenzo de’ Medici more than five centuries ago, in an attempt to stop time and harness the energy of youth. Energy that seems more valuable than ever today. Not necessarily – or not only – due to the demographic shift, but because of the demands of enterprises, the economy and our own lives.
In a world with an ever-growing appetite for energy, whether from natural gas, oil or renewable sources, this is an issue of strategic importance. Until yesterday it seemed perfectly clear in which direction we were moving: toward renewable energy and electric mobility. But this is no longer the case, and the future of energy is up for discussion once again.
There seemed to be little doubt that electric mobility would be the key to the automotive industry of the future, but the current slowdown in the market demonstrates that the issue is more complicated than that. Despite major investment and political support, demand for electric vehicles is slowing down, braked by still high costs and delays in the development of charging infrastructure. The trend is confirmed by Deloitte’s recent Global Automotive Consumer Study, underlining consumers’ continued preference for combustion engines.
To this we may add growing demand for the minerals used to produce batteries, resulting in procurement issues which could become critical in the years to come. The major manufacturers are reviewing their strategies, a sign that the energy transition is not such a straight road, and the future of mobility could well swerve and take a different direction.
And so “nothing’s sure about tomorrow.” With the return of Trump, oil and gas are back on the scene: an effect that adds to the difficulties already being experienced in funding for green energy, with about 30 billion dollars claimed in the year 2024.
The phenomenon may be a transitory one, but it could have repercussions for Europe, where the green transition has come to a fork in the road: should we continue resolutely along the road to sustainability, or reconsider our choices in order to stay competitive? With the Green Deal, the European Union demonstrates that it has no doubts which way to go, and the markets agree.
But the ongoing evolution of economic, geopolitical and technological factors demands constant revision and adaptation with the goal of balancing innovation, energy security and competitiveness.
Reality has once again turned out to be more changeable than we thought. Overly rigid plans of action could therefore represent a brake and a risk for businesses. Being prepared for such a scenario requires a strong focus on rational assessment, a spirit of adaptation, and an enterprising leadership capable of combining flexibility with different perspectives and pragmatic solutions. Only in this way, “whatever is to be, must be”!
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board