Five questions for Andrea Mennillo: "Iran vs. Saudi Arabia -- the fight for Middle East hegemony”
We spoke with Andrea Mennillo, expert economist with a broad knowledge of international political issues, at "Yemen: le mille e una guerra," a conference in Milan organized by the Festival of Human Rights and the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.Read more
Italy does not waste time: the first round of the Iran-Italy summit in Tehran begins
Iran opens up to the western world. The western world opens up to Iran.
Those of you who – like me – are interested in economic developments in the Middle East will remember 2015 as the year in which international sanctions on Iran were lifted. That followed Iran’s signing in July of the agreement with the "5 + 1" nations: the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.
That agreement has been in force since January 2016.
This marks a genuine turning point in relations between the West and Iran, and is a development that I have long expected and which – after years of economic stagnation caused by sanctions – I view as promising great opportunities.
Take, for example, this statistic: in each of 2014 and 2015, Italy still managed to export more than one billion euros of goods to Iran, thanks largely to the machinery and equipment sector1. For that reason alone I believe the end of the embargo and Iran’s opening to international trade will bring further economic benefits.
But there is more to consider.
For example, of all of the countries in Europe, Italy is the one that enjoys the best relations with Iran. And because of that, we should maximize our strategic advantage.
What, then, should our goal be? I believe we must create the conditions that will allow us to capitalize on this advantage without wasting time. And, I am pleased to say, Italy has not wasted time – we immediately opened a channel of dialogue between the two countries’ business worlds.
And so, in a couple of months the first round of the Iran-Italy summit will be held in Tehran. It is being promoted by Ambrosetti – one of Italy’s leading strategy consultants – and will offer a platform for businesspeople and government representatives at the highest levels of the two nations – as well as others from Europe and the Middle East – to discuss key issues.
Strategic opportunities between the two nations will be central to the summit, and I expect to see companies and politicians build new commercial contacts.
We will also discuss issues related to key economic sectors, and the benefits that can be derived from sharing our knowledge.
In short, this summit represents an opportunity to build a community of prominent Italian and Iranian representatives in order to strengthen relations between the two countries and exploit new growth prospects. The initiative’s five-year time horizon runs from 2016 to 2020, and within this period it is estimated that Italy can look forward to increased exports of up to two billion euros.
This represents an excellent starting point, because – over the years – Italian firms have worked diligently to win the trust of Iranian institutions. This is one reason the ‘Made in Italy’ brand is so highly regarded in Iran, especially in the industrial sector (such as engineering, iron and steel), in the oil and petrochemicals sector, and in infrastructure and consumer goods.
Looking ahead, I hope that the opening of a market of more than 80 million potential consumers, of whom over 70 percent live in urban areas and more than 60 percent are younger than 30 and boast a medium-to-high level of education, will prove a valuable market for Italian fashion and lifestyle products – even for those targeting the highest end, such as our luxury goods firms.
I also expect to see benefits in online commerce, which in Iran is currently dominated by Turkish and Chinese companies. The embargo on Iran means they have grown by offering their customers Western-style products. But looking ahead, nimble Italian companies will be able to compete in this space and reap the benefits by collaborating with Iranian partners to their mutual benefit.
There are further opportunities too: take the energy sector, for example. Iran is the largest producer of electricity in the Middle East, and has the world’s fourth-biggest oil reserves and its second-largest natural gas reserves.
Those are important statistics, to which we should also add the tremendous potential for growth in renewable energy – particularly in wind and solar, with the Iranian government planning to invest over 10 billion dollars to boost renewables production by about five gigawatts by 2020.
Linked to this is the need to modernize Iran’s existing energy infrastructure, given that 90 percent of Iran’s energy production is derived from plants that use obsolete technology.
In addition to energy infrastructure requirements, discussions will also be held on upgrading Iran’s transport infrastructure – for which the country has a urgent and growing need. It is estimated that the railways alone will need $1.5 billion each year over the next six years, with the network set to expand from 10,000 kilometres to about 25,000 kilometres.
All of these are areas in which Italy can rightly boast of its hard-won experience, and from whose competent and competitive companies Iran can benefit.
That said, obstacles remain – and these must be tackled to fully exploit the potential brought by the end of sanctions.
I refer in particular to the removal of restrictions in Iran’s banking sector. This is an important issue, because the banking sector is a key element in strengthening bilateral trade.
To that end, this summit will highlight the need for Iran’s financial market to join the international scene after years of embargo.
Clearly, this will entail risks and opportunities for Iran’s banking and financial sector. On the one hand, we will see Iranian banks – most of which are run along traditional lines – start to modernize along innovative, digital paths; on the other hand, they will need to adapt to increased competition when international players, which are more technologically advanced, enter the market.
And Iranian banks will need to adapt, too, to international regulations. And on this last point, Iranian banks will have their work cut out for them: in the past two years the number of global regulatory changes is thought to have more than doubled.
Here again, the Italian banking industry can help Iran’s banks as they enter a more competitive period. After all, Italy’s banks gained vital experience when they had to evolve rapidly to cope with competitive and regulatory pressures, and they have done superbly exploiting the possibilities offered by technology.
In closing, I hope this brief talk has shown that this new period will bring numerous and wide-ranging opportunities.
And while there is much to do, my hope is that this first Italy-Iran summit will prove to be the starting point as we strengthen our political and commercial relations and, in so doing, allowing both of our nations to reap the rewards.
1 Source: data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (http://www.infomercatiesteri.it/scambi_commerciali.php?id_paesi=104)
Five questions for Andrea Mennillo: "Armed and diplomatic maneuvers in Middle East. Terrorism’s threat does not stop economic relations between East and West”
The recent attacks in Paris and ongoing conflicts between the West and the Middle East are likely to seriously undermine economic relations among a number of countries, whether they are directly or indirectly involved. This tense situation could slow or halt the recent economic recovery in many Western countries.
In attempt to avoid such a scenario, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi met with leaders of Saudi Arabia during an official visit to the country last year and toured a site of the Riyadh subway, under construction by a consortium of Italian companies. On that occasion, the Prime Minister stressed the need to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries, at the economic and the cultural level. Following this development, we asked Andrea Mennillo, economist with deep knowledge of the Arab world, for his insights.
1. After the tragic events in Paris, does it make sense to limit trade relations with Islamic countries -- even those considered more moderate -- as some commentators have suggested?
I think it would be a big mistake. And even if you wanted to do so, it would be impossible to block such a very deep trade network. Let’s consider recent sanctions of the European Union to Russia: Just a few days ago, the press revealed that some member states (not Italy) continue to do business with the Russians, by-passing the prohibitions.
Of course, the Paris attacks had an emotional impact that was devastating. We saw Brussels, the most important European institution at the heart of Europe, under lockdown. The images were surreal – we could not have imagined this in Europe after more than 70 years of peace. Furthermore, the reaction to France’s declaration of a state of emergency revealed that Europe is incapable of making firm decisions and providing a coordinated response. It is therefore inevitable that separate reactions are coming from individual countries. There was talk of canceling the Rome Jubilee, territorial control, closing European borders, and shattering Schengen Agreement.
Actions and measures to thwart terrorist threats appear to be a set of contradictions. It is unthinkable to cut every economic relationship with certain states -- this is not the best solution when the objective should instead be targeted action against terrorists. This threat could be addressed with support from the more moderate Islamic countries. Raising economic barriers would certainly not benefit anyone.
I have heard ideas that are more promising than concrete, such as the proposal to interrupt any kind of commercial relationship with states that have adopted sharia law or calls to conduct diplomatic campaigns against countries suspected of financing Daesh. Certainly it is crucial to block the supply of weapons to terrorists, but we cannot achieve this goal by blocking the entire flow of commerce. It would be much more effective to form a true alliance between Western and moderate Islamic countries.
2. At a time when the European economy, especially in Italy, is emerging from crisis and finally looks more positive, what are the potential consequences of conflict in Middle East?
We actually are in a very special moment. Western economies are finally gearing up the recovery; the European Central Bank also noted in its December bulletin that it expected "continuing moderate GDP growth in the coming months." There is optimism. I think the ECB deserved great credit for continuing to support the economy with an accommodating monetary policy.
This is undoubtedly a positive news. However, this distinct moment is still fueled by emerging economies, which in recent years have provided a reservoir of oxygen to mature economies, and today are showing worrying signs of slowing down. The recent dramatic drops in the Chinese stock exchanges indicate that something lasting is happening. The Chinese engine may slow down more than expected and the price of oil could remain very low for quite some time.
In all of this, tensions in the Middle East and terrorist threats in Europe do not help -- they are destabilizing events that are beginning to impede free circulation within the EU. As far as Europe is concerned, I agree with what Pascal Lamy, the former General Manager of the World Trade Organization and current Honorary President of the Jacques Delors Institute, who said: "Schengen and free circulation are not the problem unless you imagine it is correct to put barbed wire at the internal borders." I hope we do not use barbed wire to protect our security. Any suspension of the Schengen Agreement must remain an exceptional case that is limited in time and cannot be applied to all European states.
3. Emerging economies are important markets for European exports, especially from Italy and Germany. Do you see significant repercussions on European exports in the near future?
Despite the good summer and autumn news that led to a revised upward trend in Italian GDP for 2015, I think the picture is still very fragile and it is still too early to say that we are out of the crisis. With all the money the ECB is introducing into the market, growth around 1 percent for Italy and around 1.5 for Europe seems a little bit small. I do not think this can be repeated if we face a similar occasion in the future. Also, austerity policies have been eased and the EU is now a little more inclined to grant flexibility to national budgets.
So the exports trend vs. emerging economies remains an important unknown that cannot be underestimated, especially for Europe’s export leaders, above all Germany. I'm not surprised that some issues in the efficient German engine begun to emerge. Only China accounts for 6 percent of German exports and its weight increased during the eurozone crisis. In October, when it was reported that about -5 percent of German exports were registered in August, that was worst figure since 2009, and concomitant with an unexpected decline in industrial production. It might have been an isolated case, but it might be the beginning of something more serious. Meanwhile, the most important economics research institutes immediately cut the German GDP estimates for 2015. In Italy, Squinzi stressed the risk that foreign demand in recent years could be downsized by the Italian economy due to world trade dynamics.
Of course, the evolution of the European economy will depend very much on the rates of internal consumption, traditionally a weakness of exporting countries, particularly Germany. The German consumption prospects are now good and the arrival of refugees will give new impetus. Everybody is still waiting for the German government to implement a policy of fiscal expansion, a decision that it can take, considering its excellent public accounts.
4. How do you see the international trade trend in the light of the latest developments?
I believe the repercussions will be important, now that we have just re-opened relations with Iran. The escalation of the Syrian crisis comes at a time when many economies have already been strained by the embargo on Russia. For example, now Finland is in trouble because the embargo could, in the long run, cost Europe over €100 billion of the added value created by exports and 2 million jobs.
Then the Paris attacks came, which caused panic and concern and of course had an impact on consumption. The Bank of Italy expressed concern about the risk of a decline in domestic consumption due to the widespread climate of fear among consumers. The Confindustria and Confesercenti are on the same wavelength. The Paris attacks, according to Confindustria data, led consumers to limit circulation, with important effects on leisure services and tourism. To this concern, you can add exports once again, because there has been a clear decline in good customers, such as Middle Eastern countries, where the collapse in the price of crude oil is having obvious repercussions. I hope that in spite of all the penalizing factors, the government's target for growth by 2015 will be +0.9 percent, although a national changeover may already be in progress.
5. The Pope has recently spoken about a potential World War III. Do you think he is right?
The United States talked about the risk of a Third World War. While the entire West is still in shock from the Paris attacks in the heart of Europe, it is time to reflect on the meaning of these events and their role in the history of our part of the world. One fact is that, for the first time, this is an act of war rather than an act of terrorism: Daesh responded to French raids in Syria with an attack in the heart of the French capital. There are many ongoing military interventions these days. Some people, perhaps exaggerating, are wondering whether the West, which has always made so-called imperialist wars around the world and economic wars for oil in the Middle East, do not deserve what happened. This self-criticism is, to me, too extreme even though it is no secret that mistakes have been made in the past, such as opportunistically supporting allies who turned into dangerous enemies. Before it was rebels who became the Taliban in Afghanistan, and today it is Daesh, whose rise seems to be tied to funding from our best “allies” in the Middle East. The West has exposed itself with imprudence and these are the consequences.
Five questions for Andrea Mennillo: "Russia is no longer alone against Isis, but the EU remains concerned with the Ukraine issue”
In the wake of the Paris attacks, French President François Hollande appears to be moving closer to working with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has also said, "Against Isis, a broad coalition is needed." Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron wants raids in Syria and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has pledged to send Tornado fighter jets and 650 soldiers to Mali. Will the European Union and the United States soon change their position towards Russia’s power to unite against Islamic radicals?
Perhaps. We spoke with Andrea Mennillo about this scenario at a November 19 conference in Rome organized by the Institute of High Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences (IsAG). In the lavish setting of Palazzo Montecitorio, amid talks on "War knocking at the Doors" and how to "Limit Conflicts in the Mediterranean".
1. After the escalation in terrorist attacks in recent weeks, there is a call to unify forces and act as soon as possible against extremism. But how can the indignation be turned into action?
The kamikaze attack against Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut, the attack on the Russian-based airliner flying from Sharm el-Sheikh and the attacks in Paris all had the same goal: Spreading terror. But just as the Isis execution of the Jordanian pilot sparked forms of patriotism in the local population, the attacks in Paris are turning the fight against Isis into a national cause. Like Al Qaida, Isis has no any support from the Muslim people living in Europe. The question now is how to turn the indignation aroused by the attacks on Paris into action. A massive land operation by Western forces, such as that conducted in Afghanistan in 2001, seems out of the question, because an international intervention would force us to deal with endless local conflicts. Also, a coordinated offensive by local powers seems unlikely given the differences in their goals. Action would require political agreement between regional actors, starting with Saudi Arabia and Iran, who are always rivals. So, it is a long path, unless Isis suddenly falls under the vanity of its expansionist aspirations or implodes from inner tensions. In any case, Isis is considered to be the worst enemy.
2. After Paris, it seems Putin is no longer the only world leader who wants to fight Isis in Syria. What is happening?
November 13 marked a sort of watershed. Fighting terrorism has become a global fight. What happened in Paris changed the world, not just Europe, and public opinion seems to support the kind of military intervention the Russian president has taken against Isis. President Hollande has already met with Vladimir Putin, who, after the shooting down of a Russian fighter over Turkey, seems even more motivated to hit Isis strongholds. France is engaging with its European partners, and Britain and Germany have responded positively. I think the solution cannot be only military. Above all, it should be political and it should foresee the resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, decisive actions are needed to limit the actions of the self-proclaimed Islamic state. Cameron himself asked European Members to vote on anti-Isis raids in Syria, while Berlin, with Paris, is ready for a military confrontation.
I am somewhat puzzled about the US military strategy. After the withdrawal from Iraq and from Afghanistan, the US seems to have abdicated its role as the fiercest enemy of terror. Now its position is far more detached: A war from afar, with air strikes. Apparently, Washington does not have the political will to send ground troops. It will only continue with a containment policy, eliminating terrorists with bombs and drones. Unfortunately, my opinion now more than ever is this type of war cannot be won without ground troops.
Having said that, I think that France is perhaps the only power truly committed to annihilating Isis. However pursuing a two-front war, as it is doing in the African region of Sahel (where there is already a large presence of troops and military equipment) and now also in the Middle East, requires important resources.
3. In this particular case, the EU continues to maintain sanctions against Russia, which today is the most determined nation against Isis. Does this not seem to you an ambiguous situation?
The ambiguity of sanctions emerged with force in France, where common sense is prevailing in the improvement of relations with Russia and the loosening of economic tensions. President Putin, for his part, has already ordered his military to coordinate the next steps with French allies. It is difficult for European countries to justify sanctions against Russia, especially at a time when it is the country that is most exposed in fighting violent Islamic extremism. The EU even renewed sanctions until July 2016. I read in the New York Times that the only policy option is the continuation of the sanctions, from three months to a year, without considering their removal. This is a short time to demonstrate to Moscow that Europe will not grant any concessions about Ukraine until the peace plan provided by Minsk agreements is fully respected. This is happening despite attempts to improve agreements after the Paris attacks. Meanwhile, in France, former Prime Minister François Fillon explicitly asked President Hollande to cancel sanctions against Russia. I believe that is the only way to pave the way for a big coalition against the Islamic state.
4. There are now tensions between Russia and Turkey after the shooting down of the Russian fighter. A climate of conflict has emerged, causing increasing uncertainty in the world economy. In your opinion, could the worsening relations between Russia and Turkey affect their respective local economies?
The climate of conflict is now a reality which is also emerging from the ongoing statements by the heads of states. On one hand, they are seeking diplomatic dialogue, which was interrupted by the shooting down of the Russian fighter over Turkish territory. On the other hand, the restrictive measures adopted by Russia only exacerbate the conflict. Hence Ankara's decision to suspend anti-Isis raids in Syria. Moscow has withdrawn its anti-aircraft artillery from Turkish border, but what appeared to be a sign of thaw was immediately overshadowed by another episode, involving 50 Turkish entrepreneurs stuck in southern Russia, accused of lying about their reasons to enter the country. A clash between Russia and Turkey is therefore becoming increasingly likely, and when we consider US support for the Ankara government, the impact is amplified. Putin still expects explanations for the downing of the fighter, but apologies will not come. It is obvious that these tensions have an impact on the business. According to Bloomberg figures, Russia is the leading partner for Turkish imports, amounting to more than $25 billion. In 2014, the value of trade between Russia and Turkey exceeded $30 billion, but today the front pages of Russia’s financial newspapers declare alarming scenarios, because after the attack on Su-24 and Putin's rage, everything risks being damaged. Also, the commercial relationships between the two countries that have been flourishing, despite the unfavorable economic situation, are seriously compromised. The situation is difficult, especially since Ankara is heavily dependent on Russian gas. Equilibriums are delicate and the situation is constantly changing, but the future does not promise anything good.
5. There is another aspect to manage at the moment: The arrival of Syrian refugees. How important is the EU's intervention to addressing this phenomenon that can overwhelm all of Europe?
At the recent extraordinary summit between the EU and Turkey, Brussels and Ankara agreed on a joint action plan proposed October 15 by the European Council. The goal and expectation of all European states is to curb the Syrian refugees who escape from the civil war with the intention of reaching Europe, retaining them in Turkey. With this plan, Member States, especially Germany, which is the preferred destination of most migrants, strongly hope they reduce the flow of arrivals. With this purpose, the EU had to spend money -- not without controversy. They confirmed the financial support of €3 billion that Turkey required to take over welcoming operations. Currently, Ankara hosts about 2.2 million refugees, which has already cost it $8 billion. The agreement will enable the countries of the Old Continent send back the so-called "irregular economic immigrants" who crossed over Turkey before reaching EU and who do not have the right to international protection. Turkish authorities will then assess whether to repatriate them to their respective countries of origin. In exchange, in addition to the €3 billion that "will go directly to the refugees," as Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu stated, Brussels, which will control spending procedures, promises to accelerate the visa liberalization process for Turkish citizens who want to go to the Old Continent. Furthermore, it commits to re-launching Turkey's integration negotiations to the EU, which has been blocked for years, mainly because of Cyprus's opposition. I hope this will be enough to ease the pressure of migration flows from Syria to Europe. The certainty is that something needs to be done and it must be done quickly.
Five questions for Andrea Mennillo: "Iran and the Vienna agreement, an opportunity for Italy and Europe”
With the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Tehran looks to the West. The agreement on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, signed in Vienna last month with representatives of the P5 + 1 (USA, Russia, China, France, UK and Germany), opens the country for business. The opportunities for Italy could be great. We interviewed Andrea Mennillo at Milan Expo, on the occasion of the National Day of the Islamic Republic of Iran, about what to expect next.
1. An important meeting just took place in Milan, perhaps paving the way for renewed collaboration between Italy and Iran. Is it possible to be optimistic?
Let’s start with a fact: The agreement between Tehran and the world powers on the future of the Iranian nuclear program has already been reached. Federica Mogherini, the Italian High Representative of the EU, during the meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, was very optimistic. Zarif himself defined the agreement as “historic,” both because it paves the way for improving relations in the Middle East, and because in this moment it offers the Italian economy new oxygen to return to growth.
2. There are those who fear that with billions of assets now freed up (at least $100 billion), Iran can finance extremist groups, terrorists or governments considered enemies of the West. How real is this danger?
I am confident that Iranians will honor their commitments. It will be crucial to be able to read in real time the evolution of internal equilibrium between the country’s soft and open wing and its hardline wing. Personally, I am confident that the agreement will increase President Rowhani's popularity in view of the 2016 parliamentary elections and the 2017 presidential elections, favoring the moderates over the radicals. There is, of course, a risk, but let’s not forget that arms embargoes will remain in force for at least the next five years and, through periodic checks by the EU, US and various international bodies, such as UN and IAEA (International Agency for Atomic Energy), it will be possible to block any violation of arms treaties. If there are any violations, the agreement may be dissolved. But this result would be a defeat for everyone, because it is not with sanctions that we solve problems.
3. A study by the Confindustria underlined that progressive elimination of sanctions will have a direct impact on the Iranian economy’s growth. Which tools can be used to create the basis for closer cooperation?
It is evident that sanctions have significantly penalized the Iranian economy. Without them, the GDP of the country could have been 20 percent larger. From next year, we could see a recovery in growth and a gradual normalization of the economy. First of all, a decline in inflation could occur, with the abundance of liquidity in the market and the recovery of the domestic demand. Furthermore, Iran will need infrastructure to fill the gap in oil production, which was blocked under sanctions. Italy can exploit major commercial opportunities, using tools such as export credits and project financing for infrastructure. Those levers were, in recent years, off limits because of sanctions. Made in Italy will play a prominent role, aspiring to win market share through excellent diplomatic and commercial relations between the two countries. It should also be noted that Iran has 14 economic zones and seven free trade areas, where foreign investors enjoy tax exemptions for a period of 20 years, with free movement of capital and no import duties. Oil will be a major opportunity for the Iranian economy (it is estimated that more than one million barrels per day will be added to the world market), but it will take time and investment to fully exploit. There is still an element of uncertainty linked to crude oil’s price trend, however: In a downward trend, placing Iranian production on the market would drastically reduce returns from this industry.
4. Speaking of Made in Italy, we are obliged to ask you about the opportunities for the Italian exports.
This topic was recently raised by our Minister of Economic Development, Federica Guidi, who underlined the importance of re-linking economic and commercial relations with a historic partner like Iran. For Italy, there is a chance to again access a market of 80 million potential consumers. According to Foreign Trade Institute estimates, over the next four years we could witness an increase in Italian exports of up to €3 billion. With the end of the sanctions, large Italian companies will be able to come back to Iran. One example is Eni, which never left the country after the introduction of sanctions, and will certainly consider the idea of returning to further invest in Iran. Italian products and know-how are still highly appreciated in the Iranian market and the recovery of a collaborative approach will definitely be positive for our business. Great opportunities could also come from mobile and automotive sectors, for example. With demographic growth, there will be the need to build new houses, hotels or offices. Important potential will come from the fashion market, with its world-leading luxury brands. Italy definitely must have the luxury market in its sights in order to gain advantages amid very strong competition, especially since China, Russia and India, free from the constraints imposed by the embargo, had the opportunity to consolidate their positions on the Iranian market.
5. Expectations are very high, but how reliable is Iran as a partner? When making investments in a country like Iran, what guarantees does it offer?
Despite the Vienna agreement, risks remain because of problems associated with the long-term effects sanctions had on the Iranian economy. The financial and commercial restrictions imposed by sanctions had a negative impact on the soundness of the state. Financial market isolation forced banks to adopt severe measures that weighed on liquidity levels. On the whole, economic and financial risks are high, but it is not necessary to be put off investing in Iran. The Sace Group, which secures investments by Italian companies abroad, has noted that the risk of non-payment is also high in the private sector (banks and corporations) and, investments in emerging markets always imply major risks linked to economic and political uncertainties. But Italy does not have to give up when the process has just begun. Our companies must have the courage to invest by taking advantage of this opportunity and leveraging their numerous outstanding qualities. New economic initiatives can only be positive for the future of our country.
Five questions for Andrea Mennillo: "Is Russia really our enemy to fight?”
After its suspension from the G8, Vladimir Putin's Russia continues to worry Italy and the rest of Europe. Meanwhile, the Middle East is plunging further into chaos.
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Five questions for Andrea Mennillo: "Italy's opportunities in the new Mediterranean area. Just a country at the border?”
1. Dr. Mennillo, we would like to address some of the discussion that took place at a meeting the Middle East Institute held in Washington in May. The meeting entitled "The Middle East in 2025: Long Term Scenarios and Strategies for Stability" analyzed the conflicts and continuing tensions across the Middle East that make long-term forecasts nearly impossible, and also prevent the establishment of effective policies that can create some stability. You certainly cannot say that Italy and Europe avoid the repercussions of instability in the Middle East as migrants flee across the Mediterranean. What do you think about the current situation?
When I think of the Mediterranean, I’m always reminded of the famous image evoked by French historian Fernand Braudel. He called it "not a sea, but a succession of seas. Not a civilization, but a series of civilizations stacked one upon the other. The Mediterranean is an ancient crossroads. For thousands of years everything has converged there, complicating and enriching the story.”
However, the tragic reality of today is far different from the past. In recent years, the Mediterranean, the cradle of civilization, has become the center of severe global crisis. Five years have passed since the beginning of the Arab Spring – the wave of protests that, starting from Tunisia, had a rapid domino effect into Egypt and on to other countries across the Arab and North Africa regions. This brought profound political and institutional upheaval in many countries; but today, the season of revolution that created hopes and promises of freedom seems to be over.
The southern shore of the Mediterranean is now one of the most unstable areas in the world. It is clear that the collapse of old autocratic regimes did not begin an evolution to countries’ structural identities. In some cases, it even led to the worsening of conditions. Above all there is Libya where, after the fall of the regime of Colonel Gaddafi, the scenario turned black. Daesh, taking advantage of the power vacuum there, has successfully penetrated the country, almost unimpeded. The radical jihadist organization has taken control of key cities and their unfortunate populations as well as important cultural and historical sites.
2. Daesh is now on our doorstep. Is it really a threat to us or to Europe in general?
Certainly this matter must be treated with a lot of caution, but also with the right kind of determination. Daesh troops are continuing their march towards oil fields that will be used to fund their operations. So the jihadists represent a serious threat to the whole geopolitical order, not only for to specific areas. Daesh’s terrorism is a thorny issue that has global consequences.
But there is not only Daesh... Every day hundreds, even thousands, of migrants cross travel by boat to our shores. Mare Nostrum is becoming Mare Mortis: countless migrants have already lost their lives trying to cross it. These "seekers of happiness," as Pope Francis defined them, are the protagonists of the dramatic new history of the Mediterranean. Inevitably, the failure of the Arab Spring has opened an intense debate on issues connected to migration, particularly the practical and legal aspects. The situation has revealed it is profoundly difficult for Italy to find adequate tools and means to confront complex challenges in a context where cooperation among members of the international community is insufficient.
3. What about the ways that they can collaborate? At the Middle East Institute’s meeting in Washington, one of the points of discussion was the paper by Prof. Ross Harrison¹ entitled, "Defying Gravity: Working Toward a Regional Strategy for a Stable Middle East." He concludes that international efforts should be directed at creating conditions that generate collaboration at the regional level. We often talk about cooperation as a precondition for stability and eventual prosperity, in this case applying it to the Middle East. But cooperation is too often missing in the organizations that should embody it. Take, for example, the countries of European Union. The EU was founded to work towards both political and fiscal integration among its countries. Yet it is experiencing many difficulties achieving any kind of consensus. How, in your opinion, can Europe solve problems such as migration?
The massive migration flows to Europe's coasts have heightened the contradictions in the European Union’s migration policy. It promotes mobility in ways that are often not in line with desires of member states, so the EU has great difficulty pursuing a consistent, shared strategy. This has led to confusion, which has certainly affected and limited interventions and decisions relating to the migrant crisis. These desperate migrants appear destined to be ignored by some of the most influential countries in the EU, including France, Germany, and Spain, who seem impervious to this tragedy of such an enormous dimension. The lack of EU solidarity on the Mediterranean gives Italy the difficult but necessary duty of trying to raise awareness of this delicate issue by providing an example of hospitality and tolerance based on a strict vision of Europe’s role in the world.
The absence of a clear and effective common European strategy in the Mediterranean has been, until now, the biggest obstacle to adequately addressing the migrant crisis. But the extraordinary meeting of the Council of Europe on April 23, which heard the presentation of the new political strategy on immigration, was a step forward. There are four pillars of the new European plan: first, assistance to the countries where migrants come from and transit of migrants; second, border controls in southern Libya and neighboring countries; third, security missions and defense missions against traffickers and smugglers; and fourth, the mandatory distribution of refugees on the basis of a quota mechanism. This last pillar sets the foundation for a revision of the Dublin Treaty, which imposed the stay of asylum seekers in the first EU country they enter.
But this last point is the most difficult to resolve. The 28 EU member states will be called on to welcome migrants according to a sharing mechanism based on several criteria, including GDP, unemployment rates, and the number of people already granted asylum. This was the focus of the European Commission meeting on May 13. Some countries, such as United Kingdom and Czech Republic, opposed refugee quotas, placing a further obstacle to the achievement of a common plan of action. The Commission also decided Italy will be exempt from new refugee quotas because our country has already exceeded the amount set out by redistribution criteria.
To those who think that our country does not do enough, I would say please consider that Italy has the third highest quota of redistributed migrants already in the EU, representing approximately 12 percent of asylum seekers who are in Europe or who will enter directly into European territory (Germany is first with 18.42 percent and France is second with 14.17 percent).
4. Daesh and migration are therefore linked issues that affect Italy directly, requiring a central role from our country. The feeling is that Italy is struggling to make its voice heard in Europe and to take the leading role that it deserves. Which opportunities, if there are any, do you think Italy could seize in the near future? Do we have the possibility to turn these difficult situations into an occasion to relaunch our foreign policy?
Yes, Italy has a fundamental strategic and political role in addressing with this difficult scenario. Or, it’s better to say, Italy continues to play a role. For almost three millennia, our country has had an important position in the Mediterranean. The port from which it sailed towards the "fourth shore" is now the door to Europe. Italy, we must not forget, has always considered itself a state that fosters Euro-Mediterranean dialogue, and has a proven ability in this difficult task.
Especially in the recent years of political instability in the southern Mediterranean, our country has remained committed to supporting the “southern dimension” of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), with the belief that the main political and economic risks to Europe come from that area. In regards to relations between the EU and the countries of that area, particularly Algeria and Egypt, Italy is considered a key partner for its role in Europe as a mediator. The renewed leadership position of Italy in the Centre for International Cooperation (CIC) further confirms our country has assumed a prominent role. The CIC operates FRONTEX, the EU agency that deals with migration and international cooperation against the exploitation of illegal immigration. Moreover, speaking of Daesh, Italy is on the forefront of defusing the Libyan crisis while continuing to provide its full support to UN mediation efforts. Our country offers to the UNSMIL² team all of its support, logistically and diplomatically; the Italian Embassy in Tripoli was, in fact, among the last remaining open as security worsened in Libya.
5. Regarding the migrant issue, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini recently said: "Sharing responsibility in Europe means gaining credibility, and cooperation with the United Nations is essential if we want to solve the problem." She stressed that "finally a European response is coming, and it is a global response, that seizes all aspects of the problem. We proceeded in an integrated and coordinated way." Do you think we are really at a turning point?
Federica Mogherini has accomplished effective and constructive work. Italy has stressed the need to begin and promote a joint policy among the major European countries. In the hopes of a real political dialogue, we have tried to find a convergence between different positions that would lead to a real and effective shared solution. But it’s hard to say if we’re at a turning point; no doubt there could be further surprises before a real common solution is reached.
1) http://www.mei.edu/content/article/defying-gravity-working-toward-regional-strategy-stable-middle-east
2) United Nations Support Mission in Libya
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