The global economy, already struggling to recover from the effects of the pandemic, is now facing another hard blow from what might be called the “energy conflict,” a true parallel war to the military one already underway.
This is a new war, affecting Europe in particular, and one that requires rapid yet forward-looking decisions. The goal is to make member states increasingly autonomous in the sourcing and production of energy, managing its consumption in an increasingly conscious manner. Consider that Russia is our main supplier of energy derived from fossil fuels, such as: oil 29%, gas 43% and coal 54%. For the EU, therefore, the current conflict is of no small concern.
Seneca observed two thousand years ago: “The unexpected makes the burden of misfortunes heavier, nor is there any man who does not grieve more for a calamity that astonishes him. Therefore, nothing should come to us unexpectedly. We have to prepare the soul for everything and think not about what normally happens, but about what that could happen”.
In our case, we see how the lack of forward-looking strategic market forecasting and international economic policy can create overly binding dependencies, making states weak in the face of unforeseen situations. Being forward-looking also means considering that, at least as far as gas is concerned, there are alternatives to Russia, but they are in countries subject to some risk of political instability and, therefore, not totally reliable in the long run. In contrast, for electricity, renewable sources currently cover only a very small part of actual needs. It is clear that we are traveling a long road, where there is still much to be done.
The European Union is running for cover with “Re Power EU,” a package of measures aimed at accelerating the energy transition by stimulating large-scale, major infrastructure investments by member states. According to Ursula von der Leyen, the ambitious goal is to make themselves independent, by 2027.
Renewables are a valuable tool to focus on in the future, but the massive production of clean energy (photovoltaic, wind, hydrogen, etc.), requires a substantial infrastructure network that will require significant time and resources to implement. As with any infrastructure investment, I expect that these will also produce a flywheel effect, strategically virtuous, capable of involving a multiplicity of actors from the private sector, bearers of expertise and capital.
The real extent of this involvement, which could also expand to sectors not strictly related to the energy sector but related to it, will depend on the choices of the governments and various decision makers involved.
Today, in the global economy, the concept of “we are all responsible” applies, signifying that all leaders worldwide are called upon to act for healthy future development.
However, divisions remain and, unfortunately, the “distant positions” between the European Union and the United States of America compared with those of Russia and China (just to give an example), do not make it easy to reach common strategies toward which to strive.
However, it is to be hoped that the willingness of many states to take a bridging role in mending rifts and divisions will be able to build international relations that can share a common mission, perhaps starting precisely with energy security. Such an approach, would be an important step in leaving future generations with a healthier environment and a stronger economy.